Short Stories and Scenarios for Innovation

Infrastructure (t, innovation)

Here is a challenging topic for this century: long term infrastructure planning in a world of exponentially increasing technological progress. This is a topic that many "experts" will, and do, get wrong! Policy makers, strategists and planners make a key mistake here. They use data that represents activities taking place today, to plan for infrastructure that will not be realised for at least a decade, and be expected to remain in use for several decades. Over that period technology will radically change, and it is inevitable that activities will change as a result of this. This means that vast sums of money could be wasted on projects that turn out to be irrelevant or surplus to requirements.

One scenario where this is very relevant is long term planning for transport infrastructure. By the time a major project has been completed and the result has been around for several decades, transport will be very different [for those planners and societies that get the message on this page]. Not only will the modes of transport be radically different so will the demand for transport.

Lessons to learn

What can we learn?

» Check that the policy maker, strategist, or planner understands exponential growth rates.

» Understand that exponential growth means that data from past history, and today, will be much less relevant to predictions as they extend further into the future.

» Understand that things will radically change decade by decade [i.e. we have never seen such rapid change].

» Consult Innovation Future Specialist

Take a look at City One (in 2050) and Transport technologies in the era 2030 to 2070.